One of our community members has done some great work on the Housing Land Supply and nicely summarized it below. Great reading!
The Aberdeen City and Shire Strategic Development Plan sets out the housing requirement for each Housing Market Area. Potterton, as part of Formartine, is part of Aberdeenshire, which is part of the Aberdeen Housing Market Area. A minimum 5 years’ supply of housing land is required; the 2019 Housing Land Audit demonstrates that for the period 2019 – 2023 there is 7.2 years’ supply available in the Aberdeenshire part of the Aberdeen Housing Market Area, with availability of land for 10,816 houses (more than 3,000 in the Formartine area alone) to meet a projected requirement of 7,509 houses. The is no shortage of housing stock compared to 2019 predictions.
Market conditions have of course deteriorated significantly since the 2019 Housing Audit was carried out. A report released by the Centre for Real Estate Research at the University of Aberdeen Business School for the 1st Quarter of 2020 continues to show a depressed market in the area, with an annualised fall in house prices of over 5% from 2015 to 2020 (Aberdeen City & Suburbs area). A report from Aberdeenshire Council ‘Aberdeenshire’s Housing Market’ from Sept 2019 shows a fall of 31% in the number of house sales between 2014 and 2018, with a corresponding drop in the average house price of over £40,000 or 17%.
The houses allocated to major developments are not being built – there has been a steady decline in demand for housing year-on-year since 2014-15, largely due to the downturn in the oil & gas industry. The Chairman of the ASPC sees this trend continuing due to Brexit, Covid-19 and a further deterioration in oil prices.
Therefore there is no need to release green belt land in Potterton to meet demand for housing. Building large housing estates in Potterton would only depress prices in the area further by oversupplying the market, whilst needlessly destroying the amenity value of living in the green belt.
The link to the Aberdeen City Housing Land Audit 2019 is below. https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/services/housing/housing-land-audit